On May 5, 2023, U.S.
Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, announced the completion of
successful “bilateral peace negotiations” he had hosted, at the
George P. Schultz National Foreign Affairs Training Center, between
the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan. There was still more
to be done but progress had been made.
The main outstanding
issues were legal claims against alleged war crimes during the recent
war between the parties, a transit corridor through southern Armenia,
and a clause in the Armenian constitution stating that the country
included the area known as Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan had captured
the area during the brutal war.
In November 2023,
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, James O’Brien, informed the parties
that the transit corridor through Armenia
should be built with the “involvement and
consent” of Yerevan [Armenia] while pointing out that the “transit
corridor created some other way, by force or involvement of Iran will
… be met with a strong reaction”
The U.S. made it
clear that Azerbaijan would not be allowed to take the corridor,
known as the Zangezur Corridor, by military force, as it had
threatened to do, nor would Iran, without severe consequences.
During early 2024,
Armenia, much the militarily weaker, sought to make Azerbaijani
threats of military force less effective by purchases of arms from
India and France. The EU sent unarmed observers toward the same end.
On July 10, 2024,
Blinken announced that
based on all of the engagements that we’ve had, including in recent
weeks, I believe both countries are very close to being able to reach
a final agreement, one that the United States would strongly,
strongly support.
With the end of the Biden
Administration, the U.S. had no further direct involvement in the
Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process that arrived at a 17 point, March
13, 2025, preliminary peace accord. Both sides reported that the
change to the Armenian constitution and finalization of the details
of the Zangezur Corridor still must be accomplished before the signed
preliminary accord would become a signed legally binding final
accord.
The Trump Administration
was busy, during the subsequent time, strong-arming nations into
extortionate trade deals under threat of escalating tariffs on their
exports to the U.S. Armenia and Azerbaijan's tiny economies and
minuscule amount of exports to the U.S. might have discouraged it
from using its time in their direction.
On the August 8th
episode of the Donald Trump Reality-President Show, however, the star
of the show announced that he, in his deal-making greatness, had
“brokered” a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The
“fact” immediately went up on his White House dot gov Donald
Trump Fan Page:
Today, President Donald J. Trump hosted Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the White
House, where the two leaders signed a historic joint
declaration for peace after decades of bitter conflict and scores of
lives lost — a landmark achievement for international diplomacy
that only President Trump could deliver.
The two leaders
also signed bilateral economic agreements with the U.S., unlocking
the great potential of the South Caucasus region in trade, transit,
energy, infrastructure, and technology, and creating new
opportunities for the American people and American businesses.
“For more than
35 years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought a bitter conflict that
resulted in tremendous suffering for both nations… Many tried to
find a resolution… and they were unsuccessful. With this Accord,
we’ve finally succeeded in making peace,” said President
Trump.
After the event, both
sides reported that the change to the Armenian constitution and
finalization of the details of the Zangezur Corridor still must be
accomplished before the signed preliminary accord would become a
legally binding final accord. The White House was not celebrating the
“signing” of a peace accord but rather the “initialing” of a
preliminary peace accord.
The writers of the Donald
Trump Reality Show were at the top of their game in this episode. In
real-reality, Donald Trump was presiding over a re-signing of the
March 13th 17 point pact (in which he had played no part
at all). But U.S. viewers don't follow the politics of the South
Caucasus. In their history, now, the Greatest Ever Deal Maker,
Donald Trump, has brokered the deal. Presumably, the Smithsonian
Museum of History will be directed to celebrate the “deal” as a
Trump accomplishment in its exhibits... or pay the price for disobedience.
But what made it worth the
star's while to bring the two leaders to appear on the main set of
the Reality-President Show for a piddling third-world peace-deal?
One, that is to say, that was actually brokered by the Biden
Administration and third parties?
How was it even a peace
deal? What was changed from the March agreement?
If we answer those
questions, the pure genius of the episode becomes clear. Armenia and
Azerbaijan's final tariff rates were not announced. Only that there
had been “economic agreements” as part of the “peace” deal.
If silence on the matter
meant that the two countries' tariffs remained 10% —
the lowest available rate — or perhaps were even quietly lowered,
what had they traded in order to get such a sweet deal? It is in the
character of the star, Trump, to always extort an impressive amount
thus marking his territory.
There
would seem to be no other answer but that he left the tariffs as they
were in exchange for: 1) a 99 year lease on the potentially most
lucrative piece of land either country possessed; 2) officially
naming the land the “Trump Route for Peace &
Prosperity”; 3)
effectively post-dating the preliminary peace accord; 4) dropping the
word “preliminary” for purposes of the key scene of episode; 5)
removing all reference to the Biden Administration's primary role; 6)
and fawningly referring to the star of the Donald Trump
Reality-President Show as the Greatest Ever Peace-Deal Maker who must
receive the Nobel Peace Prize if there is any justice in the world.

A
tariff deal called a peace deal in order to strong-arm a Nobel Peace
Prize through a reality television show campaign. A vital corridor
named after the supremely narcissistic star of the show — who
narcissistically states that he had nothing to do with the name
change. None of the specifics of the trade deal worked out before the
announcement — in favor of a compelling television scene in which
the star goes supernova. Looked at from this perspective, all of this
is perfectly in character for the star of the Donald Trump
Reality-Television Show.
As
for the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, they may have managed a
narcissist in text-book fashion. Already, Iran is offering Armenia
trade deals like they could never have imagined. The Trump Corridor
might bring them American business worth many times their minuscule
economies. Half the east-west trade going through Central Asia may
soon pass through their countries. But extreme narcissists and
extremist theocracies are, by nature, highly unstable partners.
Will
they survive their perilous success intact? We may learn the answer
on future episodes of the Donald Trump Reality Show.
Will
Donald Trump receive the Nobel Peace Prize? If he does, there will be
bowling trophies that command more respect.