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Sunday, August 24, 2025

The Donald Trump Show. Episode 5: East is East, and West is West, and the Twain Meet in the Caucasus.

On May 5, 2023, U.S. Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, announced the completion of successful “bilateral peace negotiations” he had hosted, at the George P. Schultz National Foreign Affairs Training Center, between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan. There was still more to be done but progress had been made.

The main outstanding issues were legal claims against alleged war crimes during the recent war between the parties, a transit corridor through southern Armenia, and a clause in the Armenian constitution stating that the country included the area known as Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan had captured the area during the brutal war.

In November 2023, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, James O’Brien, informed the parties that the transit corridor through Armenia

should be built with the “involvement and consent” of Yerevan [Armenia] while pointing out that the “transit corridor created some other way, by force or involvement of Iran will … be met with a strong reaction”

The U.S. made it clear that Azerbaijan would not be allowed to take the corridor, known as the Zangezur Corridor, by military force, as it had threatened to do, nor would Iran, without severe consequences.

During early 2024, Armenia, much the militarily weaker, sought to make Azerbaijani threats of military force less effective by purchases of arms from India and France. The EU sent unarmed observers toward the same end.

On July 10, 2024, Blinken announced that

based on all of the engagements that we’ve had, including in recent weeks, I believe both countries are very close to being able to reach a final agreement, one that the United States would strongly, strongly support.

With the end of the Biden Administration, the U.S. had no further direct involvement in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process that arrived at a 17 point, March 13, 2025, preliminary peace accord. Both sides reported that the change to the Armenian constitution and finalization of the details of the Zangezur Corridor still must be accomplished before the signed preliminary accord would become a signed legally binding final accord.

The Trump Administration was busy, during the subsequent time, strong-arming nations into extortionate trade deals under threat of escalating tariffs on their exports to the U.S. Armenia and Azerbaijan's tiny economies and minuscule amount of exports to the U.S. might have discouraged it from using its time in their direction.

On the August 8th episode of the Donald Trump Reality-President Show, however, the star of the show announced that he, in his deal-making greatness, had “brokered” a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The “fact” immediately went up on his White House dot gov Donald Trump Fan Page:

Today, President Donald J. Trump hosted Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the White House, where the two leaders signed a historic joint declaration for peace after decades of bitter conflict and scores of lives lost — a landmark achievement for international diplomacy that only President Trump could deliver.

The two leaders also signed bilateral economic agreements with the U.S., unlocking the great potential of the South Caucasus region in trade, transit, energy, infrastructure, and technology, and creating new opportunities for the American people and American businesses.

“For more than 35 years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought a bitter conflict that resulted in tremendous suffering for both nations… Many tried to find a resolution… and they were unsuccessful. With this Accord, we’ve finally succeeded in making peace,” said President Trump.

After the event, both sides reported that the change to the Armenian constitution and finalization of the details of the Zangezur Corridor still must be accomplished before the signed preliminary accord would become a legally binding final accord. The White House was not celebrating the “signing” of a peace accord but rather the “initialing” of a preliminary peace accord.

The writers of the Donald Trump Reality Show were at the top of their game in this episode. In real-reality, Donald Trump was presiding over a re-signing of the March 13th 17 point pact (in which he had played no part at all). But U.S. viewers don't follow the politics of the South Caucasus. In their history, now, the Greatest Ever Deal Maker, Donald Trump, has brokered the deal. Presumably, the Smithsonian Museum of History will be directed to celebrate the “deal” as a Trump accomplishment in its exhibits... or pay the price for disobedience.

But what made it worth the star's while to bring the two leaders to appear on the main set of the Reality-President Show for a piddling third-world peace-deal? One, that is to say, that was actually brokered by the Biden Administration and third parties?

How was it even a peace deal? What was changed from the March agreement?

If we answer those questions, the pure genius of the episode becomes clear. Armenia and Azerbaijan's final tariff rates were not announced. Only that there had been “economic agreements” as part of the “peace” deal.

If silence on the matter meant that the two countries' tariffs remained 10% — the lowest available rate — or perhaps were even quietly lowered, what had they traded in order to get such a sweet deal? It is in the character of the star, Trump, to always extort an impressive amount thus marking his territory.

There would seem to be no other answer but that he left the tariffs as they were in exchange for: 1) a 99 year lease on the potentially most lucrative piece of land either country possessed; 2) officially naming the land the “Trump Route for Peace & Prosperity”; 3) effectively post-dating the preliminary peace accord; 4) dropping the word “preliminary” for purposes of the key scene of episode; 5) removing all reference to the Biden Administration's primary role; 6) and fawningly referring to the star of the Donald Trump Reality-President Show as the Greatest Ever Peace-Deal Maker who must receive the Nobel Peace Prize if there is any justice in the world.

A tariff deal called a peace deal in order to strong-arm a Nobel Peace Prize through a reality television show campaign. A vital corridor named after the supremely narcissistic star of the show — who narcissistically states that he had nothing to do with the name change. None of the specifics of the trade deal worked out before the announcement — in favor of a compelling television scene in which the star goes supernova. Looked at from this perspective, all of this is perfectly in character for the star of the Donald Trump Reality-Television Show.

As for the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, they may have managed a narcissist in text-book fashion. Already, Iran is offering Armenia trade deals like they could never have imagined. The Trump Corridor might bring them American business worth many times their minuscule economies. Half the east-west trade going through Central Asia may soon pass through their countries. But extreme narcissists and extremist theocracies are, by nature, highly unstable partners.

Will they survive their perilous success intact? We may learn the answer on future episodes of the Donald Trump Reality Show.

Will Donald Trump receive the Nobel Peace Prize? If he does, there will be bowling trophies that command more respect.




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Sunday, August 17, 2025

The Donald Trump Show. Episode 4: the Miracle of 10:02 AM on August 1st.

In the April 2, 2025, episode of the Donald Trump Show, the star, Donald Trump, hosted a “Liberation Day” presentation in which he displayed a tote-board listing extreme tariffs each country of the world would be required to pay thenceforth for the “privilege” of having their products accepted for sale in the United States. Over the next two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell just under 4,000 points. The other two major markets — the NASDAQ and S&P — fell by similar amounts in percentage terms. It was the greatest April drop since the Great Depression.

On the next market day, a 90 day pause was announced in the enforcement of the tariffs. During the pause, a uniform 10% tariff would be charged on most goods from most countries. Countries were called upon to make their best counter-offer to the extreme Liberation Day tariff announced for their country. Failure to do so could result in even higher tariffs than originally announced.

The announcement was made just before the opening of the U.S. stock markets in order to assure a strong rebound. The markets did, in fact, rebound.

Asked for a response to the enormous plunge in the markets, and explanation as to why the star paused his tariffs, the audience was informed that the star being a 4-dimensional stable genius had expected the market reaction and planned all along to initiate the pause. World leaders would now come a-begging for relief. Those incompetent leaders who didn't would cause their people to suffer.

In the weeks ahead, the star, Donald Trump, made wild claims, each day, often just before the opening of the stock markets, declaring trillions of dollars of new investments to expand U.S. manufacturing. The fictional reality-news outlet Fox News repeated these claims day and night.

Refusing to read the lines that the show's writers had composed for them, real-reality media reported that the claims were vastly over-stated. Instead, they reported that many of the announcements had already been made months or years earlier by the Biden Administration and now were announced again with great fanfare, on the show's gilt main stage-set, the Oval Office, as having been achieved by the deal making genius of the star, Donald Trump. The normal annual investment plans of large corporations were also announced with great fanfare as responses to the Great Reality-President's great tariff plan. Corporate CEOs stood admiringly beside the star hoping that their acquiescence would release their companies from crushing tariffs.

The Department of Government Efficiency, it was repeatedly announced, had made over a trillion dollars of savings, in spite of the fact that real-reality media inspection of the claims showed savings of some $100 billion. A small gain, especially given the government dysfunction it has left in its wake.

The Donald Trump Reality-President Show steadily coöpted more and more of the stock markets into its story lines. It was potentially bad business for popular analysts to fail to read the lines that the show's writers were providing. Tentatively, but irresistibly, the markets rose, until the star could boast record levels.

But, while the Donald Trump Show was all being directed, by select members of the Heritage Foundation Directors' Guild, with the expected results, given its infinite emergency budgets and its reality-show obligation to create realities in line with running story lines, there was still a very big problem to be solved. After 90 days would lapse, the full tariffs would once again be enforced. There could be no stopping. Massively greater tariff revenues were absolutely essential to the show's big finale of eliminating progressive taxation of the Ultra-Wealthy.

Dedicated viewers could not help but wonder. What plans were being made to prevent another Great Depression style stock market crash?

There was only so much that markets could be expected to do and accept from out of a reality-show script that promised disaster. The tariffs could only be applied in what was left of the real world. The real-reality business losses would be enormous. A great many investors would feel obligated to sell ahead of the prospect of steep real-reality economic losses.

When August 1st arrived, the markets could only plunge again. In the first half hour the Dow Jones Industrial Average nose-dived over 750 points. At the very least, the markets could be expected shortly to trip the first stock market circuit breaker — a halt to trading in order to prevent panic selling. That alone would cause such an uproar that continuing the full tariffs would once again be highly problematical. At the very least they would have to be paused again.

But there was no time for this. Mid-term elections were rapidly approaching. Full control of the government could be lost if the reality-President appeared to be failing to deliver his reality-show promises of the greatest economy in history. Even blaming Joe Biden could fail to satisfy even the show's most dedicated fans.

And then it happened. At 10:02 AM, all three major markets, in unison, totally reversed direction, pulling back almost half of the markets' losses. No stunning news story had caused the about-face. It was a breath-taking move. The odds against such a spontaneous move were astronomical. By standard rules of thumb, such a move required, at minimum, a sudden influx of over half a trillion dollars of buy orders. But there it was.

Still the enormous downward momentum began to turn down all the major markets yet again. The influx of buy orders did not wait this time for a plunge of 750 points. Again, all major markets reversed direction in unison to erase the loss. Investor confidence then somewhat recovered. The markets traded sideways for the rest of the day. In spite of the deep plunge, inexplicable recovery (to still steep losses), and the continuation of the tariffs at the maximum rates, the Monday morning Futures Markets showed substantial gains, such as traditionally indicate high investor optimism. The markets opened with matching gains and continued to have a strong up-day recovering most of their previous Friday's losses.

Investors' reaction to their investments being saved by an apparent miracle of God was... silence. Within days the star of the Donald Trump Reality Show was touting new market highs. The stock market had been coöpted into the Donald Trump Reality Show. The star was totally feeling his God-like powers. He had been right after all. The U.S. economic institutions must follow his orders. There must be no more resistance.

But economies are complex things. Keeping stocks artificially high while company earnings are flat, at best, has arrived at another even more fearful red-flag. A statistic over which a reality-show president has no control. Something called the average market Price-to-Earnings Ratio has been inflated to nearly 30/1. Historically, this has only occurred prior to major stock market crashes such as the 1929 crash, that led to the 10 year long Great Depression, and the 2000 Dot-Com crash. Always it occurs when artificial means have grossly inflated the value of the stock markets.



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Monday, August 11, 2025

The Trump Show. Episode 3: Employment Numbers. We Don't Need No Oversight!

A stop at the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee (FESAC) page, at the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) internet site reveals the following disclaimer:

The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the purposes for which the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee (FESAC) was established have been fulfilled, and the committee has been terminated effective February 28, 2025.1

The committee was formed in 1999 under the Federal Advisory Committee Act of 1972. It's charter, reauthorized every two years by Congress since 1999, was due to be renewed in June of 2025. Not only was it not renewed but some urgent reason required it to be terminated early — as soon as possible after the beginning of the second run of the Donald Trump Reality-President Show.

The excuse of cost savings not being available, as the twelve highly respected experts on the committee provided their services pro bono, and the meetings were held by video conference, the termination was for the reality-show reason that it's “purposes had been fulfilled”. None of the experts was appointed by Donald Trump. None was a Reality-President Show expert so they were written out of the show to avoid conflicts. They were simply unlikely to deliver the lines that were written for them, to obey non-disclosure agreements, etc.

Viewers of television shows phase out when presented with detail. It is a perfect excuse to do away with such detail. On the Donald Trump Show, reality is what the star says it is, or what his co-stars say until he should choose to refute them.

Unfortunately, the DOGE required BEA cost cuts, also, to fight “waste, fraud and abuse”. These cuts necessitated changes to the methodologies for developing labor, inflation, and U.S. Census statistics. Because of the termination of FESAC no advice or oversight was available regarding the changes from outside of the new Department of Commerce MAGA staff and a few leftovers from the previous administration.

Again, this simplified the task of the Donald Trump Reality-President Show writers. Or so they thought until an actual Jobs Report was somehow released on August 1. Not only was the number of new jobs way below expectations (73,000), and way below those of the Biden Administration, but the June numbers were revised down from the 147,000 previously reported to 14,000 and the May numbers from 144,000 to 19,000.

The star had gloated during those months about how little his tariffs were effecting employment. See!!! The doomsayers were wrong and he was right, he repeatedly crowed. The told-you-so calls were echoed by the Reality-President Show experts... endlessly. Now all of that proved to be untrue and he looked imperfect — he whose first rule was that he was never wrong. If he seemed wrong or incompetent or manipulative, etc., it was the result of a deep and insidious conspiracy of the powers of evil.

But a fall-guy culprit was soon enough found. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer was a Biden Administration appointee. The star accused and found her guilty of releasing actual rigged job numbers “to make Republicans and [him] look bad”.

The Commerce Department BEA statistics, he informed his fans, were grossly rigged, prior to the 2024 election — in spite of the fact that FESAC was intact and reviewed them — in order to make Biden look good. Corrected for Biden's rigged jobs numbers, Trump averred, his were even higher than the figures given in the grossly inflated original May-June (and unvetted July) reports. Much higher. Then the Biden Administration destroyed the evidence so everything looks legitimate. “Everybody knows” it.

On Friday, August 2, the day after the Jobs Report was released, the star himself wrote a memorable scene for this episode, featuring a MAGA Reality-President Show expert, Stephen Moore, to read lines revealing new secret data.

“We have access to the... uh... some data that no one else does.... based on unpublished Census Bureau data that will be released in the next six months...” The numbers were unbelievably good in line with the writers' characterization of the “Greatest President in the History of All Time” star. Census Bureau data is not designed to serve as economic data nor is it tracked monthly. But it creates reality-show reality and that's the point.

Nor were these numbers “job numbers”. The audience would have been unable to suspend disbelief sufficiently to accept “new,” highly positive employment statistics. The markets would have been forced to accept that the United States economic numbers are fiction written by the Donald Trump Reality-President Show writers who simply present what they are told the star requires.

Instead, they were purported personal income numbers. Not only that but numbers presented on the level of a Dick-and-Jane primer for an audience having no ability to understand such matters and a presenter needing to preempt all fact-checking by those who do.

Such numbers vary widely depending upon method of calculation. No methodology or context at all was provided. They are not verifiable and wont be publicly released, the viewer is conveniently informed, until some six months will pass, when the viewers will not remember the presentation for anything more than its emotional impact if at all. Of course, they have not and will not be reviewed and signed off by FESAC who the Trump Administration no longer needs in order to guarantee its methods and its numbers. As we have observed is always the case on the Donald Trump Reality-President Show, they are “real” because — and solely because — the star says they are.

It seems highly unlikely that we will ever see numbers so infuriating to the “Greatest President in the History of All Time” star of the Reality-President Show again. Safeguards have surely been put in place, the responsible people defamed and written out of the script.



1  https://apps.bea.gov/fesac/




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Monday, July 28, 2025

The Trump Show. Episode 2: Greatest Deal Ever after Greatest Deal Ever.

When last we visited the Donald Trump Show, China seemed to have totally cut off the supply of rare earth minerals to the U.S. military in response to Trump's tariffs. These minerals are essential for manufacturing “smart” technologies, including smart bombs and 4th and 5th generation military aircraft. There are since claims that some small supply had been restarted. The Trump Show itself has conspicuously lacked any advancement of the rare earth plot-line.

Smart U.S. commercial products require even more of the minerals. Their manufacturers are presently receiving enough supply to get by for as much as six months, generally allowing to stockpile enough for a month and more, while new export licenses are hopefully being approved.

But, actually, the viewer learns from the show's fictional news channel — Fox News — that Trump has now gone further than authorizing exports to China of previously prohibited jet engines and micro-chip manufacturing software. He has also authorized licensing to sell Chinese companies high-grade H20 micro-chips that were previously withheld “for national security reasons.” Inside sources report that Trump has done this as a step toward his genius, 4-dimensional secret master-plan. He had planned to give the permission from the start, the viewers are informed.

Not covered on Trump Show fictional news stations was China's “withdrawal” from a previous “deal” committing it to divest from Panama Canal area ports. Trump's great “foreign policy victory” has disappeared in a puff of smoke (there having been no formal agreement signed). China has silently waited for its moment and now demands at least 50% Chinese control of the ports' operations and profits.

Like all of Trump Show's deals, to date, these exist only on the show. They are “real” because words came out of the mouths of Donald Trump and the supporting cast of the Donald Trump Reality Show nutshelling the deals (it only being a television show, after all) in which Trump's character — the all-time genius of deal-making — somehow gets everything he wishes yet again. 

In the China tariff negotiations, a temporary tariff rate and port fees have been announced that may change from tariff pause to tariff pause, for some time to come. A final deal is a daunting prospect for the Donald Trump Show. The show's writers will now have to create a new story line to match: an ever more difficult task as the “deals” pile up.

For the present, China's recent actions do not exist in the “real(ity show) world” and definitely have nothing to do with a huge (and perhaps irrecoverable) blunder by the reality-show-president regarding vital rare earth minerals. Nor does the fact exist that Chinese President Xi has not responded to requests for a meeting between the two leaders, leaving Trump to wait hat-in-hand.

Instead we hear the star declare that

We're very close to a deal with China. We really sort of made a deal with China but we'll see how it goes.

The China temporary-tariff is expected to be extended for another 90 days. The next meeting of the negotiators will occur on Monday.

In the meantime, a Japan deal was announced, at 15%, which the star of the show announced included a $550 billion investment fund to be directed solely by himself. The U.S. is to receive 90% of some-undefined-thing (profits, apparently — from what who knows), Japan 10%. What incredible deal making skills the star possesses! This, he announced, would be the template for success in the deals that lay ahead! Billions of dollars laid at his feet in tribute. Surely, he has made the “greatest deal of all time!”

What an episode! The U.S. stock markets spiked. Japanese officials were silent until after the star's victory scenes had played out before gently suggesting, off-camera, that there was no such $550 billion fund as described. The U.S. stock markets leveled off. But, still, new record levels had been reached and widely proclaimed. The Japanese officials continued over the following days to make timid statements to the effect that no such fund as Trump described was in the “deal”.

Nothing has been signed, of course. No detail description of the “deal” has been provided to the public.

Days later, Trump traveled to Scotland to shoot the greatest ever reality-round of golf and to advertise his newest Scottish course. The European Union trade deal having been in negotiation, by then, for months, Trump met with the President of the European Union, Ursula Von der Leyen.

After a 75 minute meeting the two made a public appearance to announce they had closed the agreement. The star did almost all of the talking, all of it self-congratulatory. “I think it's the biggest deal ever made.”

Von der Leyen knew her role. She spoke her admiring lines beginning with “We have a deal!” See! Even the other party says for the camera that this is definitely a “deal”.

As the Trump Show fictional media outlet, the New York Post, announced:

It took just 75 minutes for President Trump to get everything he wanted from the European Union.... Trump was triumphant. Europe is buy $750 billion in American energy products, invest $600 billion in new money in the US, buy additional US military equipment and drop all tariffs on American goods, according to the preliminary agreement.

No negotiator worth their salt in the real world believes for a second that anything substantial toward the deal was negotiated in those 75 minutes. The scenes were written for the Donald Trump Reality-Show audience to admire the greatness of the star character. Again, Von der Leyen, being a real-world president knew the importance of delivering her lines as written when doing a guest appearance on the Donald Trump Reality Show.

In Von der Leyen's press-conference to follow she expanded on the details of the deal inasmuch as they have been agreed. The agreement established a number of tariff categories for which each side negotiated zero tariffs. For most of the rest of the trade categories the EU would pay a 15% tariff. It would be “non-stackable,” which is to say that previous tariffs are nullified and no increase in tariff rates will be permissible in the future.

The tariff reductions to 0 and 15% will be instituted immediately. The rest of the agreement establishes a “framework” upon which to implement the other aspects, over the coming months, defining what exactly they come down to, upon what price and time schedule they will be realized, etc. She did not mention the purported $600 billion dollars of investment at all.

Not being a reality-star president, she has had the presence of mind to gain for her government a powerful tool to expand the EU sanctions against Russian oil and gas to long-recalcitrant member-states such as Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Italy, etc.  The star of the show specifically mentioned the possibility of individual member-country tariffs. They will at long last be forced to switch away from Russian products in order to avoid punitive tariffs that will cripple their economies.

The commitment to purchases of US military equipment has already been made long ago as part of other negotiations. Now, however, the US will have specific obligations to provide at price and on schedule. What rights will be included to resell equipment to Ukraine should be negotiated, as well, with the EU in an improved position.

The EU consisting of 27 willful member-countries will spend months squabbling over every detail. In the meantime, US tariff rates for the EU will be at the reduced rate.

During the same press conference, Von der Leyen very much stressed that Europe was rapidly expanding its markets throughout the world. While EU-US details are being negotiated, new trading partners will be importing a wide range of products from the EU and exporting tariff-free metals with which to build considerably less expensive EU products. This, of course, can only be intended to neutralize future attempts at strong arm economics.




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Sunday, July 06, 2025

Donald Trump and the Donald Trump Show starring Donald Trump.

During a pep rally for Donald Trump's “Big Beautiful Bill” Trump makes an off-hand comment. He knows his part. He has constructed his character from his every conceit and foible. Fate gave him a large inheritance, mediocre business prowess and the wiles to realize that his genius lay in opportunism, self-promotion and the ability to manipulate others. And now he is the star of far-and-away the most popular show on television.

“We just signed with China yesterday,” he says. Everyone in the room gazes upon him with utter admiration. No one in or out of the room knows what the words mean exactly. Perhaps not even he himself (not being “a reader,” as it were).

The main sound stage of the present president-show of the United States, from which he has tossed off this line, is called “the Oval Office”. For the Donald Trump Show, it is all gilt and gold thread. Another set where action shots are filmed is the South Lawn. The Marine One helicopter stands waiting. The president has to perform his role for his audience over the deep symbolic thrum of the powerful engine. The action is implied.

Beyond the gilt décor and the replacing of the Rose Garden — first planted in 1913, the year of the inception of the income tax which the star also hates and intends to replace with tariffs — with a cement slab, this may not seem all that much of a change. But Donald Trump has converted the presidency into a reality television show. Rebooted for a second run. With an all new supporting cast, each cabinet member chosen to be a lovably obeisant bumbling mismatch for his or her putative responsibilities.

The star of the show travels the world heroically setting right all that is so so wrong. Or he is on his way to win yet another reality show golf tournament at one or another of the resorts he owns.

As with all stars, with their own eponymous television show, Donald has a fan club. In fact, it is the biggest in the world as evidenced by the fact that it's main fan-site is called “White House dot gov”. Virtually every day it is updated with more slavish adulation from Republican Senators, Representatives, appointed officials of the executive and reporters from Fox News and others among the growing MAGA media. Most of it originates with the White House Office of Communications. Trump himself largely prefers to worship himself on his own social media platform.

As in all reality shows, very little of it is actually real. It is this which distinguishes it from other presidencies (none of which can claim to have been 100% real, of course). The president is the center of all. Everyone who can get into the Oval stands behind him looking on in poses of utter, glowing admiration. They laugh demonstratively at all of his jokes. To fail to do so is to fail to appear again in future episodes. Visiting world leaders get to sit beside rather than stand behind him and receive insults in order to establish who is the alpha male, who is the star of the show. They, too, must pose in utter admiration, regardless, or they, too, will not appear again.

Surely, Trump does know something of the details of the China deal. Two weeks earlier, on June 11th, he'd announced, on his social media account, that a handshake-deal had been finalized. In it he stressed that “Full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China.” He has learned that if he says something on his reality show it becomes fact.

There is no single item more important to his success, foreign and domestic, than these rare earth minerals. Not that he has lost anything by tipping his hand. China knows it as well. For present purposes, China trade deal primarily equals rare earth minerals — the stuff the world relies upon in order to make its Smart Phones and smart bombs and fighter jets and every other kind of smart tech. Without rare earths all of our war and commercial tech will be dumb (if it is even possible to function at all) and all of China's, North Korea's, Russia's and Iran's will be smart.

For all the June 11th handshake was shaken it apparently didn't take. It seems that the rare earths were not forthcoming as Trump had expected. His top negotiator, Howard Lutnick, assures us that issue is resolved with this new deal that won't be broken like the other deal (inasmuch as there may actually have been an “other deal”).

But being reality television, it may not have mattered to the cast of the show whether there was even actually a deal. What mattered is that a deal was announced just in time to bring another episode to a victorious denouement. Trump's leadership and genius had triumphed again. Even China had crumbled before his overwhelming personal emanations.

A lack of actual rare earth delivery, however, threatened to become a physical fact that would soon force itself onto the story line. The story line was revised: “The president was furious. There had been a deal but China was failing to perform their part of the bargain.”

A new parlay is urgently requested. The Chinese government graciously agrees. Within days, Lutnick stands behind Donald Trump, glowing with admiration, as the star declares “a deal”. (Both know that the term “deal” is so vague that it can mean pretty much anything.) Something seems to have been signed which provides a pretext for the claim. So then, in reality show terms it is unquestionably a deal. The Great Deal Maker has made yet another great deal.

Other governments are calling these “frameworks,” a rather vague term, also, and one that got the president of Ukraine unceremoniously ejected from an obscure servant's door of the White House. On camera because it is a reality television show. The star has not advertised himself as “the Great Framework maker”. Being the star, he makes deals.

Being the star, not only are they deals but they are deals that say whatever he says they say. So much so that there is no need to make the text of the agreement public as is customary with non-reality presidencies.

Chinese President Xi, on the other hand, is not the star of his own reality show. He doesn't even wear makeup. He is a straight up autocrat with no need of performance. China has even seen fit to describe the framework that has been signed. The spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce summarized the agreement as follows:

China will examine and approve applications for export of eligible Controlled Items in accordance with the law. The U.S. will lift a series of restrictive measures against China.1

No word of “up-front” or “expediting” such as Trump and Lutnick have used and the U.S. press has dutifully repeated.

“In accordance with the [Chinese] law” means licensing rare earth minerals and products for export requires the entity receiving the materials provide a wide range of Intellectual Property, physical plant, process and end-product data. Each individual order requires an application for a separate license. This is known as “One Batch, One License”. Each license can require up to 45 working days. Failure to satisfy the information can mean the license will be denied or the approval process delayed.

It is this that the Chinese have agreed to. The framework for it, that is. The details will be addressed between the parties as matters proceed.

Oh, yes. The framework does not include commitments to supply the U.S. military or its contractors. Following closely upon the April 2nd Liberation Day announcement of the tariffs, Chinese law/policy was updated to forbid sale to the U.S. military or to any U.S. military contractor.


Update – Stories have begun to appear in the media informing us that the U.S. has released chip-making software and jet engines from restrictions on sales to China. These in return for unspecified “rare earths”. A down payment and a good faith gesture but surely not payment in full. China will need to purchase the software only once. The U.S. will need a continuous supply of components fabricated from rare earth minerals such as are only available in quantity through China. No mention has yet been made as to whether components for military use are included in the deal. These facts do not exist on the Donald Trump Show.


1 Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China. https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/syxwfb/art/2025/art_00a79a2980e44ee8b8a2325786979e47.html



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Monday, June 09, 2025

The Trump Administration's “War on Government Statistics”

The Trump Administration is flooding the airwaves with such a constant flow of “information” that it would not be surprising that a desperate reader did not remember the March Bloomberg headline: “The War on Government Statistics Has Quietly Begun” [3/11]. Bloomberg is not in the least a left-leaning media source. Nor does it publish conspiracy theories. Yet the article worries out loud:

In a time of great economic uncertainty, President Donald Trump’s administration quietly took a step last week that could create even more: Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick disbanded the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee.

It leaves the reader with a worrisome observation:

Reduced transparency in official statistics is perhaps the most troubling aspect of disbanding FESAC. Cutting off agency staff from external advisers creates an environment where political interference could occur much more easily — and go undetected.

The committee also advised the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other U.S. Commerce Department statistical bureaus.

There were many more reports on the subject with revealing headlines such as the following:

The latter article included the tidbit that the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee had also been disbanded.

The Week published a piece just this week: “Economists fear US inflation data less reliable” [6/5]. 'In an email this week to economists who had raised concerns about "quirks" in the April CPI report,' we learn, the BLS revealed that, on top of disbanding the expert advisory/oversight groups, 'it had indefinitely "reduced" its data collection "due to a staffing shortage in certain CPI cities"' (a fine excuse).

The first CPI inflation reports, to date, from the Trump Administration covered the recent December and January months under the Biden Administration. The numbers were surprisingly high. The inflation rates for February through April — months under the Trump Administration — either came in below expectations (February) or surprisingly below expectations (March, April). Following the April report, expert economists contacted the BLS about euphemistically described quirks — inconsistencies — in the data. The reply they received was that this was going to be the new methodology for some indefinite period of time.

The Federal Reserve sampling system, called “the Beige Book,” — protected from the Trump Administration control for the moment — showed, instead, notable increases in selling price of the range of products surveyed. “The pace of selling price increases eased somewhat [in May] butremained moderate.... While some firms said they were absorbingtariff-induced cost increases, most reported that they were passingthrough some or all of such cost increases to their customers byraising prices.” Specific numbers are not given but the picture seems to indicate inflation at a moderately increasing rate.

The Administration's labor statistics have also been surprisingly resilient. In spite of major government layoffs and rapidly rising private sector layoffs the recent BLS jobs report showed a surprising increase of 177,000 in new hires. Surprisingly, the unemployment rate remained 4.2%.

Over the same period, the highly respected ADP [Automatic Data Processing, Inc.] jobs data saw an altogether different trend in its numbers. According to CNBC [6/4]:

Private sector job creation slowed to a near standstill in May, hitting its lowest level in more than two years as signs emerged of a weakening labor market, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.

Payrolls increased just 37,000 for the month, below the downwardly revised 60,000 in April and the Dow Jones forecast for 110,000. It was the lowest monthly job total from the ADP count since March 2023.

Even Fox Business finds itself having to report private aggregator data:

Challenger, Gray & Christmas on Thursday released a report that said there were 93,816 job cuts announced by U.S. employers in May. That amounts to an increase of 47% from 63,816 announced last May, while last month's figure was down 12% from 105,441 cuts in April.

That brings the total number of job cuts announced this year to 696,309 — an increase of 80% from the 385,859 jobs cut in the first five months of 2024. This year's total is just 65,049 job cuts away from matching the 2024 annual total.

It seems that the most highly respected private data aggregators show a labor market already plunging, on the brink of free fall. Government numbers, on the other hand, show a surprisingly (even incredibly) healthy labor market. Government numbers show the inflation rate going down. The Fed shows prices going up and retailers actively passing along tariff-induced price increases to their customers.

Meanwhile, Fox (non-business) “News” is continuously interviewing Trump Administration officials from the White House lawn with such headlines as “Every Measure of Inflation is lower than its been in over 4 years, Kevin Hassett says,” [6/6] in which Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, informs viewers that:

Tariff Doomers have egg on their face.

This is exactly what the president said... What about the economists? Like, they're so bitter there's no inflation. I mean, they can't understand why all their soothsayers were wrong about this,... we've had big positive surprises in jobs every month since President Trump's been in here. And so what that means is that we've created 500,000 more jobs now in just a few months.... We did this while we cut 50,000 federal government worker

All are singing off the same song-sheet. Gloating, actually. Government numbers verify that genius Trump was right all along.



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